by Ben Silverman

In the three years since it first launched, the Nintendo Wii has sailed past competing systems from Sony and Microsoft to consistently claim the top spot in the console war.

But if a recent rash of troubling stories about the Wii is a vision of things to come, the tide might be turning for the seemingly unbeatable machine.

Kinks in the system’s shiny white armor starting showing last month. Despite steady success in Japan, the Wii fell into second place in March as the underdog Playstation 3 clambered atop the region’s sales charts for the first time in 16 months. That was enough to garner some uncharacteristically somber comments from Nintendo President Satoru Iwata, who deemed the climate in Japan “unhealthy” for the Wii.

But to Cowan & Company analyst Doug Creutz, the U.S. market isn’t necessarily any healthier, at least if you’re thinking of investing in a console game. In an interview with Gamasutra, Creutz called the Wii “fool’s gold” for third-party game developers.

“The choice here is really between investing for the Xbox 360 and PS3 — since their capabilities are fairly similar — or the Wii,” he said. “I would caution investors and developers that the larger installed base of the Wii is really a bit of a red herring.”

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